It seems to be a universal pastime in our lives- debating the weather forecast and whether or not it can be trusted. There are those who believe that their local weatherman can predict the 10 day weather forecast unfailingly and if an error were to rear its ugly head, well obviously it would be an anomaly. There are the others who believe that a 10 day forecast is little more than a coin flip and that there is little to no science to the matter of predicting the weather- particularly in a 10 day forecast or longer. Which side of this familiar argument bears the most weight? Is there scientific evidence backing up the accuracy of a 10 day forecast or is it just guess work? It seems the scientific evidence is available and improving at a consistent rate. Due to the constant improvement of computers, the precision of weather forecasts has increased, with the most increase in accuracy in the 1 to 5 day forecast range. Forecasting is based on the laws of physics and uses prediction models based on a numerical system. These numerical prediction models can forecast large high and low barometric air pressure systems as they develop and move. These systems determine the day to day weather changes in middle and high latitude areas. Therefore, predicting the pressure systems accurately leads to predicting weather changes accurately. While the 1 to 5 day range of forecasting is still the most accurate time span, the 10 day forecast is following close behind in reliability. The methods of statistics and their interpretation used to predict the weather are broadening the scope and the correctness of the previous models used. Today’s satellites offer continuous observations, which also improve the calculations used in forecasting. Snow Day Calculator/Predictor https://snowdaypredictor.info/ These methods are most accurate in a 1 to 5 day weather forecast, but are still considered quite capable of making satisfactory predictions for up to 10 to 14 days, particularly the first 10 days of the month. The qualities of mean temperatures and amount of expected precipitation are the two aspects of weather that can be forecasted at a 10 day range with the most accuracy. By improving the global scope of observation, through the use of satellites, aircraft and ocean buoys, the data used to improve the physics models and other theoretical approaches are also improving the computations used in the models. When this higher quality of data is combined with the continuing improvement in the speed and memory capacities of computers, the accuracy of a 10 day forecast will only continue to improve. Science and technology is storming ahead at a rate that is practically immeasurable and all the many ways society makes use of that exponential growth are continually improving and changing as well. Weather forecasting, which 50 years ago was basically guesswork and hunches, is solidly based in science and is now more accurate than ever. Snow day 2020
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